The Nooner

Highlights:

• The EIA provides daily U.S. Lower-48 power generation data that EnerWrap wrangles into monthly data to provide insights into changes in fuel sources well in advance of when the EIA releases monthly data sets. For this Special Edition of the Nooner, we aggregated the monthly data into annual data to compare 2024 to the prior five years.

• Natural gas capture its highest share of the U.S. power stack ever in 2024 at 41.7%

• Coal power generation dropped to 671 TWh in 2024, down 2.9% on the year and down 28.6% from 2019

• Combined wind and solar power generation exceeded 15% of total generation for the first time ever

• Total generation grew by about 3%,or 120 TWh

• Solar generation grew by 37.4% in 2024

• Wind generation grew by 7.6% in 2024 after declining 1.0% in 2023

• With the pending change to the administration, much uncertainty exists over future generation output

2024 U.S. L-48 total power generation was 4,160 TWh, up 3.0% versus 2023.

2024 power generation increased by 120 TWh, with changes by fuel source shown below. Natural gas added the most generation, followed by solar, then wind.

Natural gas power generation was 41.7% of the total stack in 2024, the highest on record. Coals’ share slipped to 16.1%, the lowest on record.

We consistently mentioned the growth in natural gas power generation as being an under-reported story last year. Gas generation has grown by 4.2%, 7.9% and 6.9% the last three years, off a large base. Despite renewables capturing many of the headlines, gas continues to grow at robust rates.

Coal power generation is down by nearly a third since 2019. Of note the nominal decline in coal generation from 2019 is 268 TWh. Gas generation has increased by 283 TWh over the same timeframe, basically a one-for-one swap.

Solar generation grew by 37.4% to all-time highs. Solar has grown at a 26% CAGR the last five years.

After declining 1.0% in 2023, wind generation grew again in 2024, by 7.6%. Wind has grown at a 9% growth rate the last five years.

Combined wind and solar generation exceeded 15.0% for the first time, with wind at 10.9% and solar 4.9% share of the total power stack.

Using the most recent five-year growth rates, solar generation in the U.S. would exceed wind in five to six years.

However, with the change in the administration and looming policy changes for Energy markets, much uncertainty exists for the trajectory of renewable growth. One thing is certain in Energy markets though - surprises. 2025 is shaping up to be a year of change. Demand is rising driven by data center power and EV power consumption while policy may shift supply dynamics. We’ll continue to report on the data to provide an early look into any meaningful shifts is fuel source dynamics.