U.S. Energy Production By President

Highlights:

• EnerWrap analyzed U.S. oil & gas production by Presidential term going back to the first term Ronald Reagan when monthly oil & gas production is available

• The Biden Administration is on pace through December 2023 EIA U.S. oil & gas production data to have the largest nominal increase in combined oil & gas production ever, slightly edging out the Trump Administration if the pace holds

• The Trump Administration has the largest percentage increase on record for combined U.S. oil & gas production

We analyzed monthly U.S. oil & gas production from the EIA going back to 1980, using oil production and gross withdrawals of natural gas. The surge in combined production is something to behold, up 110% over the last 20 years. Natural gas production was converted to barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) terms on a 6-to-1 ratio.

Oil gets much of the political focus in the U.S. given consumers see gasoline prices daily at the corner gas station, but natural gas production has surged significantly more than oil over the entire dataset.

In BOE terms, U.S. combined oil & gas production was 35.5 million BOE per day in December 2023.

We then looked at combined oil & gas production by Presidential term starting in January 1981, the first term of Ronald Reagan. Each term is estimated from the January of inauguration until the January four years forward. The change in production and percentage change in production was calculated.

Through December 2023 (last monthly data available) combined oil & gas production in the U.S. has increased by 4.9 million BOE per day under the current administration. January 2021 to December 2023 is 1,064 of a 1,460 day Presidential term (4years x 365 days). We then calculated the ending production increased based on the current pace (4.9 x 1460/1064) to estimate January 2025 production at the end of Biden’s current term. If the pace through December 2023 holds, oil & gas production will increase by 6.7 million BOE per day.

6.7 million BOE would be the largest nominal increase of oil & gas production ever during any Presidential term, barely nudging out the 6.6 million BEO per day increase under President Trump. The increase under Trump came off a smaller base, so he will continue to hold the record for largest percentage increase for any President ever, a record unlikely to be broken.

What’s it all mean? The U.S. oil & gas industry is resilient. Politics or President’s appear to mean little to production increases despite the rhetoric from both sides. The U.S. oil & gas industry has lowered consumer spending and changing geopolitics globally by chugging along and increasing production no matter who is in office since the U.S. shale revolution began.

No matter who wins in 2024, we expect this to continue, albeit at a slower pace than recently.