The U.S. Power Grid Over Time

Highlights:

• We looked at U.S. power capacity changed over time using the EIA 860-M report

• Natural gas currently comprises 43% of total capacity, with coal at 15% and nuclear power 8%

• Natural gas power capacity saw a significant built out starting in the early 2000’s doubling capacity from 250,000 MW to more than 500,000 MW over 9-10 years

• Renewable capacity (wind, solar, battery storage, hydro) comprises 30% of U.S. power capacity currently, which is set to grow to 37% by 2030 based on the current project pipeline

• Renewable capacity is seeing a higher growth rate off a smaller base, with growth of over 300% between 2015 and 2025 expected 

• Capacity factors matter - capacity does not equate to generation mix, we’ll do more work on this soon

The natural gas capacity build out of the 2000’s was substantial. Natural gas can be seen replacing coal capacity.

Despite the growth of solar, wind and battery storage, they remain a small percentage of the overall mix at 22% currently.

Solar capacity is set to exceed coal capacity in 2028.

Renewable capacity will approach natural gas capacity in the later part of the decade.